Detroit-based Rocket Companies, the parent of Rocket Mortgage, saw its strategy of investing in technology and expanding its servicing portfolio start to pay off in the third quarter of 2024. It originated $28.5 billion in loans during the period — up 28% year over year.Short-lived relief in mortgage rates led to a double-digit increase in mortgage production and gains in market share during the period, executives said. But the company delivered a GAAP net loss of $481 million from July through September, a figure that was driven by a loss of $878.3 million in the fair value of its mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).“Over the past few months, the market has thrown our industry almost every curve ball imaginable,” Varun Krishna, CEO and director of Rocket Companies, told analysts during an earnings call on Tuesday. “With inflation easing, the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in four years. But in an interesting twist, while the Fed lowered rates, mortgage rates did not follow suit. Instead, both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually increased.“In my experience, it’s always important to take the long view and put things in perspective. Despite the housing market being challenging, we are seeing signs of rejuvenation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined from nearly 8% a year ago. This is helping improve purchase affordability and opening up refinancing opportunities to lower monthly payments, plus housing inventory has increased from 3.4 months to 4.3 months.” Rocket’s GAAP net loss of $481 million from July to September was a reversal from its $178 million profit in the second quarteer of 2024, per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Adjusted earnings, which excludes non-cash expenses and one-time charges, reached $166 million in Q3 2024, lower than the $255 million figure in Q2. The GAAP net loss also stemmed from a decline in total revenue, which reached $647 million in Q3, down from $1.3 billion in Q2. Meanwhile, expenses rose to $1.14 billion, up from $1.1 billion in the second quarter.Operationally, a two-week dip in mortgage rates created a brief window for refinancing in Q3 2024, pushing Rocket’s total origination volume to $28.5 billion from July to September — up from $24.6 billion in the previous quarter and $22.1 billion in Q3 2023. Its direct-to-consumer channel remained the primary driver, generating $14 billion in volume during the period, compared to $12.4 billion from its third-party originator channel.Gain-on-sale margins for Q3 2024 were 278 basis points, a decrease from 299 bps in the previous quarter but nearly unchanged from 276 bps in Q3 2023. This was driven by a margin of 410 bps in the direct-to-consumer channel and 147 bps in the third-party origination (TPO) channel. Executives anticipate margin expansion in the fourth quarter, a period when competitors typically adjust pricing strategies around the holidays. According to Rocket leadership, current margins are approaching the historically healthy levels seen before the pandemic.Rocket’s playbookWhile the company doesn’t provide a detailed breakdown of purchase versus refinance business, executives reported market share growth in both areas during the quarter. Refinancing opportunities are largely coming from Rocket’s servicing portfolio, which reached an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $546.1 billion at the end of Q3. With 2.6 million loans, Rocket’s servicing operations generated approximately $1.5 billion in annual fee income.Rocket, like its peers, has been actively acquiring servicing assets. In Q3 alone, it invested $311 million to add $22.4 billion in UPB, bringing its total UPB acquisitions from January to October to $70 billion. Executives anticipate that portfolio acquisitions will remain a key capital deployment strategy alongside opportunities from subservicing agreements, such as Rocket’s partnership with real estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management. The company’s total liquidity was $8.3 billion as of Sept. 30, including $1.2 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Rocket reported an 85% recapture rate on its servicing portfolio. The company is leveraging technology to navigate mortgage market cycles more effectively. Chief financial officer Brian Brown told analysts that the company can “support $150 billion in origination volume without adding a single dollar in fixed costs.”Additionally, Krishna said Rocket Logic, the company’s proprietary loan origination system, now saves more than 800,000 team member hours per year — a 14% increase in just two months — that result in more than $30 million in annual savings.Looking ahead, Rocket projects adjusted revenue between $1.05 billion and $1.2 billion in Q4 2024, a seasonally slower period due to the holidays. Executives said higher mortgage rates have also dampened application volumes. Rocket shares fell 11.3% in the after market, following the earnings call, to $13.78.

Bill Pulte, the philanthropist and CEO of Pulte Capital — and who shares a name with his grandfather, the founder of Atlanta-based homebuilder PulteGroup — is reportedly under consideration for the post of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary in the new Trump administration, according to a report from the New York Post.Pulte is a regular and frequent poster on the social media platform X, having used the platform as the source of philanthropic giving to other platform users. He is also a vocal supporter of President-elect Donald Trump who lambasted the housing proposals of Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 election campaign.The Post reported that unnamed sources close to the situation claim that key transition figures are “loudly” advocating on his behalf. Additionally, they claim that Pulte has already had some conversations with members of the Trump transition team.The report also noted that Ben Carson, the HUD secretary during Trump’s first term in office, is not interested in returning to the role. Instead, he is reportedly jockeying to become secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).“Bill comes from a prominent family and is probably best qualified, probably overqualified,” the source said, according to the Post.Pulte has also posted photos of himself on X in close proximity to Trump and high-profile figures of the 2024 campaign — including former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump himself.Pulte said Tuesday in a post on X that Trump “is the only builder who has ever been elected president,” adding that he can take action on the federal lands owned by the government.Following prior presidential elections that have resulted in a new occupant in the White House, the nominee for HUD secretary is typically a post that is announced within the first two weeks of December.In 2008, following the victory of Barack Obama, Shaun Donovan was named the nominee-designate for HUD secretary on Dec. 13. In 2016, Carson was announced as the selection for the role on Dec. 5, roughly a month after Trump’s first election win. In 2020, Marcia Fudge was announced as the nominee on Dec. 8 for the Biden administration.Pulte is no longer involved with PulteGroup. He sued leaders at the company in 2022 for allegedly harassing him on X, then known as Twitter.

As 2025 approaches, state-funded down payment assistance (DPA) programs are helping veterans, service members and surviving spouses achieve their dreams of homeownership.This comes from a new survey by Down Payment Resource — a nationwide database designed to connect prospective homebuyers to financial assistance opportunities. The study analyzed DPA programs from more than 1,300 housing finance agencies, municipalities, nonprofits and other organizations. A total of 29 down payment assistance programs were added in the U.S. in third-quarter 2024. Down Payment Resource highlighted 49 of the 2,400-plus programs that offer up to $117,000 specifically for veterans. That represents a slight decrease from the 61 programs that offered up to $120,000 per borrower last year.In 2024, second-lien mortgage programs (20) stand out with the highest number of veteran-tailored DPA programs. Grant programs (15) and first-lien mortgage programs (12) came in next.The 15 grant programs offer forgivable assistance, provided that a homeowner maintains their status as the primary occupant and owns no additional properties. Last year, 24 programs offered the same benefit. The report also noted a slight increase in the minimum down payment assistance amount for veteran-tailored programs, which grew from $2,000 to $2,500. The maximum assistance amount decreased from $120,000 to $117,000. Rob Chrane, founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource, said that veterans and their families should be more aware of DPA options heading into 2025.“Owning a home is foundational to long-term financial stability, and our goal is to ensure Veterans and their families are aware of the assistance available to them,” Chrane said in a statement. “As we celebrate Veterans Day and Military Family Appreciation Month, we’d like to thank our Veterans, service members and their families. It’s our hope that these programs can unlock the doors to homeownership and all the benefits it brings for them in the coming year.”Data shows that more veterans have been gearing up for homeownership in 2024. According to a National Association of Realtors (NAR) report in July, veteran homeownership has steadily increased since 2008, with veterans outpacing civilian buyers in some markets. And another survey by Veterans United Home Loans found that 74% of the military population plans to purchase a home in 2025, compared to 69% of surveyed civilians. Veterans or family members interested in purchasing multiunit properties may also receive assistance. The report highlighted that 24 programs support the purchase of one- to four-unit homes. With mortgage rates expected to sink further in 2025, program demand could continue to grow.

Digital mortgage exchange platform and loan aggregator MAXEX announced on Tuesday the hiring of mortgage technology veteran Daniel Wallace as its new chief operating officer. Wallace brings more than 30 years of experience as a leader of tech-focused mortgage, asset management and capital market platforms. Bill Decker, MAXEX president and co-founder, highlighted Wallace’s expertise in mortgage technology as a valuable asset for the company. “Dan Wallace is exceptionally well qualified to help lead MAXEX as COO during this exciting phase of our company’s growth,” Decker said in a statement. “Dan’s unique expertise positions him at the intersection of technology, asset management, and mortgage finance, perfectly aligning with our vision for the future. Dan has led some of the industry’s most impactful platforms, and his leadership will further strengthen our team’s ability to deliver on our vision.”Daniel WallaceMAXEX chairman and co-founder Tom Pearce shared Decker’s praise for Wallace, highlighting the new COO’s vision for building an accessible central mortgage market platform. “Dan is a proven leader who brings invaluable expertise across the technology and mortgage finance ecosystem, which will enhance our leadership team and drive greater innovation and execution. His alignment with our long-term vision for an accessible, centralized mortgage market utility underscores our unique market position,” Pearce said.The new COO’s leadership journey began in the capital market sector. Wallace served as managing director at financial services firm Lehman Brothers before the company went bankrupt in 2008 following the nationwide financial crisis. He later transitioned into several capital partner roles, including as venture partner at Conversion Capital and as co-founder of Capital Crossing — which saw peak revenue of $52 million in 2023, according to data from career development site Zippia. Before joining MAXEX, Wallace served as CEO of Haven Servicing. According to an announcement, MAXEX intends to work with Haven to enhance digital technology in the marketplace under Wallace’s direction. Prior to Haven, Wallace served as the general manager of lending at Figure Technologies — a leading nonbank home equity line of credit lender — and as CEO of FirstKey Mortgage.In a statement, Wallace reinforced his commitment to increased mortgage trading on the MAXEX centralized platform. “MAXEX has built a trusted and unique ecosystem, connecting over 340 mortgage originators and more than 30 prominent loan buyers through advanced technology to make the secondary mortgage market more efficient and accessible,” Wallace said.“The U.S. mortgage market is the world’s largest credit market. However, due to its complexity, mortgages had never been successfully traded on a centralized exchange before MAXEX. I’m excited to join the MAXEX leadership team at this critical growth stage,” he added.MAXEX is based in Atlanta. It is the first mortgage company to grant access to mortgage trading under a central clearinghouse platform. MAXEX said it has managed more than $37 billion in transactions.

Finance of America (FOA), the leading reverse mortgage lender, presented a robust outlook last week in its third-quarter 2024 earnings and is aiming to hit the ground running with business in 2025.While the reverse industry has faced unique headwinds over the past couple of years, the company is seeking to build on the momentum provided by its HomeSafe Second proprietary product. It also wants to widely deploy refreshed marketing strategies that are designed to both educate and appeal to older homeowners about the use of home equity in retirement.FOA President Kristen Sieffert spoke about some of these efforts during a Q3 earnings call.‘Digital innovation’ team being builtHomeSafe Second, a proprietary second-lien reverse mortgage product, has been a major focus for FOA and its partners this year. The product was first introduced in 2018, marking the industry’s first-ever second-lien reverse mortgage option. It was suspended in 2020 due to economic volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it marked its return in February 2023 with a minimum-age eligibility reduction to 55. The company also recently announced a refresh of the product, lowering the interest rate and adding four additional states to its service area for a total to 10 states.On the earnings call, Sieffert discussed a new “digital innovation” team that is being built at FOA with the purpose of delivering “financial services to seniors in a way that is modern and user-friendly.” At the end of Q3 2024, the company launched a digital-first marketing campaign for HomeSafe Second specifically to identify the most effective strategies for attracting new customers, and a “dedicated team” is being built to further support these efforts.“As the campaigns and team mature, insights gained will inform our growth strategy and investments for a digital-first channel next year and beyond,” Sieffert said.New ad agency, HomeSafe Second performanceSieffert also revealed that the company has enlisted the services of a new advertising agency partner. In 2025, it will begin rolling out new regional and local programs designed to “build our brand profile and drive business in strategic markets,” she said.Sieffert also mentioned the refreshed elements of HomeSafe Second, sharing information that looks to corroborate the statements of additional interest from customers.“In the third quarter, we saw an 89% increase in HomeSafe Second loans compared to Q2, and we anticipate further growth as we invest more capital and resources in the product,” she said.The potential for building on HomeSafe Second’s numbers also comes from broader trends in the home equity lending space, she said.“While home equity lending nationwide is on the rise, recent data shows that people 55 and older face denial rates exceeding 35%,” she said. “Many in this demographic have considerable home equity but struggle with tighter credit conditions that impact qualifications. This represents a significant opportunity for us as our products are specifically designed to serve this demographic.”With speculation around mortgage rates now turning to a higher-for-longer scenario, Sieffert said that HomeSafe Second will continue to be “a better option for many borrowers 55 and older.”But in the event that rates fall, the traditional Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) and first-lien HomeSafe products could offer “more attractive outcomes, as well as increased refinance opportunities for our borrower base,” she said.

Cornerstone Financing, a venture co-founded by former Reverse Mortgage Funding (RMF) CEO Craig Corn, has secured $285 million in financing through global investment firms Aquiline Capital Partners LP and Nomura.The funding will go to support the company’s specialty home equity-tapping product known as the Cornerstone Home Equity Insurance/Investment Funding Solutions (CHEIFS). The product operates similarly to a shared equity investment. It allows homeowners to sell a portion of their home equity for cash to specifically fund “insurance, annuities, long-term care, and other financial and life planning options,” the company said.“Partnering with these prestigious institutions affirms our commitment to providing advisors with innovative home equity solutions,” said Daniel Anderson, who co-founded Cornerstone Financing alongside Corn.CHEIFS is currently available in four states: Arizona, California, Florida and Pennsylvania. Supported by the new funding round, the company has ambitions for a national expansion and is seeking new distribution partnerships.The company describes the product’s purpose as aiming to “utilize previously untapped home equity to enable superior estate, insurance, and investment planning through trusted advisors.”Timothy Gravely, partner and head of credit for Aquiline, added that the firm got involved due to the unrealized potential for using home equity to address retirement shortfalls.“We are proud to support Cornerstone in the expansion of CHEIFS,” Gravely said. “This product addresses a critical gap we observed through our participation in the insurance market, and we are excited to back the solution.”Corn is a longtime reverse mortgage industry professional, having served in leadership roles at Financial Freedom and EverBank Reverse Mortgage, and as vice president for MetLife’s reverse mortgage division. In 2013, Corn and his partners launched RMF, which became a leading reverse mortgage lender.According to Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) endorsement data compiled by Reverse Market Insight (RMI) in early November 2022 — just prior to the halting of originations and its subsequent bankruptcy — RMF was the fifth-largest HECM lender in the country, with 4,804 endorsements over the 12-month period that ended Oct. 31 of that year.Following the collapse of RMF and the assumption of its servicing portfolio by Ginnie Mae, Corn and Anderson went on to launch Cornerstone Financing in May 2023.

One month into her presidency, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a new initiative to address her country’s housing deficit by building 1 homes and offering zero-interest mortgages, a development first reported by Newsweek.The program is designed to support vulnerable groups, including female-led households, young people, Indigenous communities and senior citizens. The announcement fulfills Sheinbaum’s campaign pledge to create affordable housing and advance equitable urban development initiatives.Sheinbaum’s Housing and Regularization Program is a partnership between the federal government and Mexico’s national housing agencies. Under the program, the National Workers’ Housing Fund Institute (INFONAVIT) will build 500,000 homes, and the National Housing Commission (CONAVI) will construct an additional 500,000 homes for those ineligible for traditional public housing programs, according to Newsweek.The Welfare Financial Institution (FINABIEN), a new government-backed lender, will offer subsidized financing to further assist those outside of standard public housing eligibility.The initiative includes significant funding, with the Mexican government committing the equivalent of about $30.8 billion in U.S. dollars for housing development, particularly in rural and underserved regions.Sheinbaum’s housing plan also unfolds amid evolving U.S.-Mexico relations, with tensions around migration and trade expected to rise following Donald Trump‘s election.

Housing markets across the country have stalled since mortgage rates began to rise in 2022, but relief may be on the way.That’s according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), whose latest forecast calls for a 9% increase in home sales in 2025 and a further boost of 13% in 2026. Underpinning these numbers are Yun’s belief that broader macroeconomic trends will boost the housing market.Yun’s comments came at the annual NAR NXT conference in Boston, during which he noted the benefits of homeownership.“When more people work, they have the capacity or they’re in a better position to buy a home,” Yun said. “Home sales depend mainly on jobs and mortgage rates.”Yun’s forecast comes at the same that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released a macroeconomic forecast that predicts a sluggish economy over the next few years. While gross domestic product rose 3.2% in 2023, MBA’s outlook is that 2024 will finish at 2.3%, followed by three years of growth of 2% or less.Residential investment — which boomed in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic — will be more mixed after hitting 2.5% growth in 2023. The MBA forecast shows a 0.1% gain in 2024, followed by more volatile growth of 1.1% to 3.3% in the next three years.It also shows stabilizing inflation, with consumer price appreciation pinging between 1.9% and 2.3% per year. Mortgage rates will play a huge part in where the housing market goes from here, and Yun expects four separate rate cuts in 2025. The elephant in the room for any current economic forecast is incoming President-elect Donald Trump, who has criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for his interest rate policies and has signaled his preference for rates to come down.But Trump’s proposed plan for tariffs has been widely panned by economists, who say they would supercharge inflation. While specific numbers have varied on any given day, Trump proposed a 10% to 20% blanket tariff on all foreign imports and a 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese goods. In the days leading up to the election, he suggested a 25% tariff on Mexican imports.If Trump implements these tariffs and they have the effects feared by economists, it would squeeze household budgets and make it more difficult for people to afford to buy a house, depending on whether the inflation would be offset by mortgage rate reductions. They would also push up homebuilding costs.“Today, we have a massive budget deficit at a time when we are not in an economic recession,” Yun said at NAR NXT. “Clearly, President-elect Trump will not stop tax cuts; he will extend or expand them. There will be less mortgage money available because the government is borrowing so much money. However, if the Trump administration can lay out a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit, then mortgage rates can move downward.”

For Nykia Wright, CEO of the National Association of Realtors, 2025 is going to be all about turning NAR into a trade association for the future while rebuilding relationships with members.“NAR is really focused on rebuilding the association for today and tomorrow,” Wright told NAR members gathered in Boston Monday for the trade group’s board of directors’ meeting at the conclusion of the NAR NXT conference. “One thing is for certain, the industry is changing and we must lead and change with it.”According to Wright, a large part of revamping NAR will include a focus on redefining the member experience. To rebuild these relationships and work to redefine the member experience, Wright said NAR will be consulting surveys and focus groups conducted at NAR NXT.“Through the use of those surveys, we are going to understand a lot more about what people need on the ground, and meet them where they are and organize ourselves accordingly,” Wright said. “Certainly, we need to redefine our relationships with brokerages — large and small, public and private.”Wright also told attendees that she would soon be announcing the hiring of a special adviser, whom she said will help her “turbocharge and add rocket fuel to getting around the country reestablishing those relationships.”Partially fueling Wright’s desire to rebuild relationships with members comes from the recent “rumblings” to challenge the three-way membership agreement among local, state and national Realtor associations.“We are here to make sure that those rumblings subside,“ she said, “because it is our duty to make sure that people understand what happens at the local level, the state level, the national level, and really make sure that people understand that there is no cannibalization of services, but it’s really working together to make things work.”The rumblings that Wright referenced also include two antitrust lawsuits (Hardy and Muhammad) that were filed by brokers and are seeking class-action status. The suits allege that the requirement for all Realtors and brokers to be members of NAR, their state Realtor association and a local board of Realtors represents an antitrust violation.In addition to these suits, the Alabama Association of Realtors sent a letter to NAR asking it to end the three-way agreement.Although Wright did not offer any further discussion of the three-way agreement, she did mention that NAR was looking to rebuild its relationships with “partner organizations.”“This is a very, very large ecosystem in residential and commercial real estate, and there are a lot of people in organizations that do things a lot better than the association,” Wright said. “We want to acknowledge that and leverage that.”Like NAR president Kevin Sears, Wright also acknowledged that NAR’s budget will be tighter in the future if its commission lawsuit settlement agreement is approved later this month. Due to this, she said the trade group is looking at “repositioning” some of its 300-person staff to meet the association’s “ever-growing needs.”Additionally, Wright said she wants to change the discussion surrounding the size of NAR’s leadership — which includes a board of directors consisting of nearly 1,000 members — to focus on the group’s “effectiveness.”“It is our implicit and explicit oath to you all that we will continue to do that, so that we will make sure that people around the nation — consumers and Realtors and agents alike — understand our purpose, and make sure that people are not discussing negative narratives about us,” Wright said.As part of this effort, Wright highlighted that NAR has recently hired its first chief human resources officer. It also has brought in a Washington, D.C.-based legal firm to complete a risk assessment of NAR’s current policies to determine if any of them pose future legal risks.“Recently we’ve been taking each pitch as it comes and we have not been winning those ballgames,” Wright said. “What we want to do is look outside and see what those risks are, and understand how we can better manage and not be caught in the antitrust world again.”The trade group expects to have findings back sometime in the next two months. It plans to use this information to help its governing body understand what it needs to do in the future to avoid further litigation over its rules.As NAR and the real estate industry at large look to move beyond the past year, which Wright said was filled with “hiccups,” she asked the board and NAR members to help disseminate consumer guides that expalin the terms of NAR’s settlement and the associated business practice changes.“Not only is it important for people to understand what are the results of the settlement, but when we were sitting across from the Department of Justice, it appeared that they were implicitly indicting us for not educating the consumer,” Wright said. “So, to the extent that you all can continue to hand out those guides, we don’t want to be sitting across from the government with that type of accusation in the future, even though we know internally what we do every single day.”Wright’s address at NAR NXT came a little over a year after her one-year anniversary at the trade association. She was named as interim CEO in early November 2023 following the resignation of longtime CEO Bob Goldberg. NAR made things official with Wright in August, naming her as the trade group’s permanent CEO.

Downpayment assistance programs are available to first-time homebuyers across the country in the form of more than 2,400 such offerings at the local and state levels, but they have not had an appreciable impact on the level of U.S. homeownership.This is why a zero-down Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage would be a more viable and cost-effective option, according to a recent issue brief published by the Urban Institute and co-authored by Michael Stegman, Ted Tozer and Richard Green.“For many years, four in five FHA borrowers have been first-time borrowers,” they wrote. “The FHA has also provided access to families of color relatively more than other lending channels. It is also the only federally backed mortgage program that still requires a down payment.”A zero-down option would not be useful if there were a lack of “mortgage-ready borrowers,” the group wrote. But prior Urban Institute research has indicated that “many potential millennial homebuyers are 40 or younger and do not have a mortgage but have the credit characteristics to qualify for a mortgage — suggesting a lack of a down payment is the only barrier to homeownership.”The authors used data from the U.S. Census Bureau‘s 2022 American Community Survey to estimate that one-third of renter households, or roughly 15 million in total, “have a sufficient income to afford the monthly costs of the average-price FHA-insured home ($362,700) at a 6 percent interest rate.”The writers also claim there is less inflationary risk on a zero-down FHA program when compared with a national downpayment assistance plan. The latter option was discussed by Vice President Kamala Harris multiple times on the campaign trail as a potential program she would’ve sought to implement had she been elected.But the inflationary risk of such a program is clear, since “large down payment grants are essentially one-time income transfers that shift out the housing demand curve, which likely boosts housing prices to some degree,” the authors wrote. “In contrast, a zero-down mortgage relaxes a liquid asset constraint without changing effective borrower income.”In terms of a potential legislative template, the group details a bipartisan proposal introduced by members of Congress during the George W. Bush administration that would “offer a new 100 percent financing mortgage product to help first-time homebuyers purchase a home by allowing zero downpayment loans and financing of the settlement costs.”Several elements of this plan from 2004 could work in today’s mortgage market environment, they argue. These include the addition of a surcharge to the mortgage insurance premium; a volume cap of about 10% percent of total single-family loan endorsement volume based on the preceding year’s totals; guardrails that would suspend the program if the foreclosure rate exceeded 3.5% in a given year; and holding borrowers “to the same underwriting standards that applied to the broader program and required one-on-one housing counseling from a HUD-approved counseling agency.”Some changes would have to be made to the original proposal, they say, including post-financial crisis consumer protections and loss-mitigation options; incorporation of modern (and tighter) FHA underwriting standards; and the exclusion of settlement costs from the loan.“The financial crisis, high rents, stagnant wage growth, and other factors have prevented many renters from building the savings required to afford a down payment. And for many, this is the only barrier to buying a home,” the authors stated. “A zero-down FHA mortgage option could help a new generation attain homeownership, while being cost-effective and presenting minimal risk to the federal government.”The prospects of such a plan being discussed have changed significantly since the proposal was published on Oct. 29. While downpayment assistance and expanded incentives for homebuilders were discussed by Harris as a presidential candidate, the campaign of President-elect Donald Trump primarily focused on addressing housing costs by curbing immigration and by prioritizing the sale of federal lands to serve as bases for more new homes.It remains to be seen what a second Trump administration will prioritize when it comes to housing affordability, an issue that does not appear to have played a major role in his election victory last week.

The national housing shortage, the benefits of increased density, an ongoing shift in consumer tastes toward smaller homes closer to where the urban action is, and other factors have pushed state legislators to make it easier to build accessory dwelling units. In 2024 alone, Colorado, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Hawaii passed major ADU legislation, and California added several laws to open the doors wider for ADUs. Ultimately, though, local governments remain the key gatekeepers when it comes to ADU liberalization. While state-level ADU policies take aim at local rules that hamper ADU development, there’s still work to be done.But first, the good news. Colorado’s HB24-1152 and Arizona’s SB 1415 followed the main tenets of what’s become a standard approach to stoking ADU development. They made ADUs legal by right (meaning local governments can’t simply forbid them), did away with or minimized requirements for added parking requirements, banned municipalities from forcing more stringent ADU design requirements than on the primary dwelling, and eased or eliminated owner-occupancy requirements. Hawaii’s SB 3202 follows suit, though it doesn’t address parking requirements. The Massachusetts Affordable Homes Act, passed in August, allows ADUs under 900 square feet by right on single-family lots. State officials expect 8,000 to 10,000 ADUs to be built in the next five years thanks to the law. And in California, which passed its first ADU law back in 1982, five ADU-related laws passed: AB 976 made permanent a sunsetting ban on owner-occupancy requirements.AB 1033 allows the separate sale of an ADU from the main residence. AB 1332 requires all cities and municipalities to develop programs for the preapproval of ADU plans posted to the agency’s website, streamlining the review process. SB 1211 makes it easier to build ADUs on multifamily properties. SB 1210 requires utilities to post estimated fees and completion timeframes for typical service connections, including ADUs (ensuring that owners have an idea upfront about the cost and timing of utility hook-ups).As state legislatures continue to press municipalities to ease or remove ADU-related restrictions (13 and counting have done so), utility and other fees—collectively known as impact fees—move toward the center of pro-ADU policy discussions. That’s because impact fees can add up to more than enough to stifle ADU development.Take a couple of examples from Colorado, where the state and many municipalities are working hard to change the regulatory landscape that favors large single-family homes. The town of Lyons, near Boulder, is looking to boost density. But legacy regulations that favor sizable single-family homes mean the impact fees tacked to each door of a high-density single-unit development make it financially untenable. So, despite a tight community of ADUs aligning with Lyons’s community goals, it looks like the land will instead go to a developer of standard single-family homes.In Nederland, another town near Boulder, the impact fees to build an ADU – or any other home – add up to about $65,000. If you’re building a $2 million mansion, that’s perhaps a rounding error. But if you’re considering a $200,000 ADU, it’s a huge hit. To Nederland’s credit, they’re working on a water study and are intending to reduce those fees. The town is following a clear trend: Scarcely a week goes by when a municipality somewhere in the country isn’t liberalizing their ADU-related ordinances. Based on those and my own experience, a few things municipalities can do to help foster ADUs beyond those typically found in the new state mandates:Prorate impact fees based on building size, not just whether it’s a dwelling unit or not. A 750-square-foot ADU is not, from a utility’s perspective, the same as a 5,000-square-foot house.Consider a program to waive system-development charges, as Portland, Ore., does if the ADU is not intended as a short-term rental. Those charges can include transportation (for possible right-of-way improvements) water, sewer and stormwater, and parks and recreation.If historically single-family home is dominant, evaluate how zoning and permitting works (or doesn’t work) for multi-unit or small-unit developments.As California is doing with AB 1332, fast-track permitting when ADUs are to be built based on pre-engineered plans previously submitted by ADU builders.Finally, a broader consideration: Think about the long-term advantages of higher density, including higher sales-tax revenues and property tax revenues—and without the headaches that can come with multifamily buildings in terms of, for example, public safety.States and municipalities have come a long way in smoothing the paths forward for those who hope to add vital infill housing through ADUs. Ultimately, though, municipalities hold the keys to whether or not ADUs can open many more doors in tackling the persistent U.S. housing shortage.Mike Koenig is the President and founder of Studio Shed.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.

Inventory, new listings, sales, and prices all dipped this week. The autumn seasonal decline is upon us. The election took up a lot of peoples’ lives last week, and that obviously delayed some listing and sales activity, plus we’ve had spiking mortgage rates. It’s actually not uncommon for housing activity to dip for the first week of November and rebound a bit in the following week. Given the confluence of trends right now, I do expect inventory and new listings to rebound again before the end of the month. I’m now looking forward to 2025 when the data comes in each week. I have questions on the future of both sales volume and home prices. We’ll release the HousingWire 2025 Forecast paper in the next week or so where we’ll lay out our expectations, scenarios, and data to track for the real estate market in the coming year. Let’s take a look at the data for the first full week of November 2024.Inventory growingRising interest rates create rising inventory. Rising rates slows demand for homes and when demand slows, inventory grows. This has been true all year long, starting in the fourth quarter of 2023. At that time, mortgage rates rose from 6.5% to 8% and inventory spiked. Those high rates and rising inventory trends persisted for most of 2024 with only a small reprieve in September.We’re also at the seasonal decline time for the housing market. It’s really hard for inventory to climb past Thanksgiving. We have two more weeks where I expect more inventory of unsold homes on the market.But this week, unsold, available single-family home inventory around the country declined by nearly 2% to 722,000. Election week delayed a bunch of new listings, a few sales completed, and there are a fairly high number of withdrawn listings — plus, the total homes on the market declined. Any new listings delayed are now listed, and that’s why we’ll see an inventory rebound next week. I’m expecting 728,000 or so next week. People only delayed listing for a few days, and buying conditions are worse than they have been recently. There are 28% more homes on the market than a year ago. Inventory was still growing each week in November of 2023. Remember that 2024 inventory had been as much as 40% above 2023, and now it’s 28%. New listings declinedWe counted 49,000 new listings of single-family homes this week, which was a big decline from recent trends. That’s probably a one-week dip due to the election. I expect a bit of a rebound next week back to maybe 55,000 or so. But for this week, that new listings count was down 20% in a week. There were fewer new sellers this week than last year for the first time in a while. While it’s a notable week, it’s just one week and will bounce back. This is not suddenly a trend of dramatically fewer sellers. We have two full more weeks before Thanksgiving, and it’ll be in December before we see the big dips for the holidays. We’re now looking into 2025, with expectations of continued growth in the seller volume. More sellers and greater inventory is a trend for 2025. New pendings dipThe sales rates dipped along with the new supply rate this week. We’re looking at the newly pending contracts here. We counted 51,000 new sales started this week for single family homes plus another 10,000 condo sales contracts. That pace is down notably from a week earlier. And in fact we counted 2% fewer sales started this week than the same week last year. The recent average is 58,000 single-family home sales started each week. That’s averaging 10% more than recent years in November. One poor showing breaks our 10-week streak of Year-over-year home sales growth, but it doesn’t yet reverse the trend. On the other hand, with mortgage rates shooting up, maybe this autumn is shifting back into low sales mode. We’ve been disappointed with fake recoveries over the last three years. A reversal of our sales growth trend is not off the table. While I still expect a rebound in the new pendings count for this week of November 10, If we don’t get one, that will be a clear signal from homebuyers.Even home prices dippedHome prices dipped with the market activity in the election week also. The median price of single family homes that started contracts this week – those 49,000 newly pending sales – dropped a couple percent this week. Like inventory and sale volume, I expect a rebound in the price next week. By this measure ,even including the big dip this week, home prices are 4% above last year at this time at $380,000. I expect prices to rebound next week with the bigger volume, but if that doesn’t happen, that will also be a signal that the this quarter’s steep jump in mortgage rates are taking their toll on homebuyer demand. Price reductions—you guessed it—ticked downWhile home prices ticked down this week, it’s probably due to the lower activity overall. One way to check that assumption is to look at the price reductions levels. If sellers are accelerating their price cuts, that would be a weakening signal. In fact, price reductions ticked down again this week. We’re down to 38.8% of the homes on the market with price cuts. That’s fewer than last week and fewer than last year. We use price reductions are a leading indicator of future sales prices. While 38.8% is still more than normal which tells us what we already know and that is that demand for homes is still weak, the trend nationally is for fewer price reductions this fall. Recently as homes have sold or been withdrawn from the market the percent of listings that have taken price cuts from the original list price is ticking lower. This tells us that the current expectations of buyers are sellers are lining up for continued price resiliency in 2025. There aren’t any signals in the data that show home prices falling dramatically. As we look into 2025, it seems we’re lined up for another year where affordability is difficult.  When you focus on affordability specifically, it’s hard to imagine how home prices can stay elevated. Homebuyers are stretched and as long as prices stay high, demand will be limited. There are some forecasters who use affordability as a guide for assuming home prices will fall in 2025 and 2026. At HousingWire, we’re about to publish our 2025 housing market forecast paper which covers all these perspectives. Mike Simonsen is the founder of Altos Research.

The headlines might suggest that National Association of Realtors (NAR) members are struggling to find common ground on many issues. But any hint of division was nowhere to be seen during Monday morning’s NAR Board of Directors meeting.According to NAR president Kevin Sears, 886 directors attended the meeting at the NAR NXT annual conference in person, with another 100 directors attending virtually.Although Sears has already acknowledged that 2025 may be a financially challenging year for NAR, the trade organization should be in good financial shape in the long term if the commission lawsuit settlement is approved later this month, said NAR treasurer Greg Hrabcak.He said the 2025 budget will maintain NAR’s current reserve level, and there are no dues increases scheduled for the year.“Through the budget reductions that were incorporated in the other proposal, there is minimal impact on our products, services and advocacy support,” Hrabcak said. “Nearly all areas of NAR contributed to the reductions, without any on area feel a disproportionate impact. The 2025 budget moves NAR forward on the path to settlement fulfillment in a very disciplined and responsible fashion.”The positive news about NAR’s budget comes from the fact that the trade association’s anticipated big drop in membership has not materialized — it had 1.526 million members at the end of October, the fourth-highest all-time. NAR is forecasting 1.4 million members in 2025, an 8% decline but not nearly as stark has many outside observers have anticipated.All three budget related proposals presented by Hrabcak easily passed with no discussion.NAR’s board also heard and voted on proposals presented by the trade group’s recently established Culture Transformation Commission (CTC), which was led by Ryan Davis and Christina Pappas.The CTC presented one item for vote to the Board, which was a new requirement for NAR volunteer members and staff to complete annual training on all the policies and procedures related to accountability. The requirement would go into place in 2026, and it would ensure NAR leaders and staff “understand” how to properly handle and process sexual harassment complaints, among other things. The Board approved the rule 858 to 47.Other votes:The board voted to amend the application for NAR elected and appointed office to include a question on whether the candidate has had a professional audit of their social media within the last three years. Additionally, candidates will have to agree to the NAR Leader’s social media guidelines and all elected and appointed officials will be subject to at least an annual audit of their social media. Candidates running for President-Elect, First Vice President and Treasurer will be subject to a “media audit.”In addition to this recommendation, the Board also approved a measure to extend the application submission period for NAR elected officials to run for four months from January 1 to April 1, beginning in 2026. Committee chair Leslie Rouda-Smith said this change would allow the trade group to properly vet potential candidates.The final measure brought before the board was an item presented by the Leadership Team to allow the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) a non-voting member on NAR’s leadership team. According to NAR leadership, CREA has offered NAR a similar seat on its leadership team. While the Board was not voting on the item, as it was being sent for further discussion and voting with the delegate body, the measure was contentious. Despite the objections, the Board voted 754 to 131 to send the motion back to the leadership team for further discussion.

While 2024 was certainly a challenging year for the real estate industry, 2025 may be a doozy if the Counselors of Real Estate’s (CRE) 2025 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate report is to be believed. From price expectations to the impact of a Trump presidency, uncertainty is the main driver of today’s market. The 2024 global chair of CRE, Anthony DellaPelle, presented the report at the National Association of Realtors’ NXT conference in Boston on Sunday.CRE is a global organization consisting of roughly 1,000 members representing a wide swath of real estate professionals from agents and appraisers to urban planners, architects and economists. This is the thirteenth year the group has put together its “Top Ten” list.In order of least to most impactful, the 2025 list includes the price expectations gap, office vacancies and the tax base, sustainability, artificial intelligence, housing attainability, insurance costs, geopolitics and regional wars, loan maturities and debt repricing, the cost of financing and global and U.S. elections.Price expectations gapAccording to DellaPelle, real estate buyers and sellers are in a standoff when it comes to asset prices.“I am going to hopefully sell my single-family home in a very nice New Jersey suburb sometime early next year,” DellaPelle said. “I think the expectations that I have as a seller are probably different than the buyer, but the game there is smaller.”Despite the shrinking expectations gap and the fact that buyers are less often surprised by property prices, many consumers are still holding strong on their positions, with sellers waiting for an uptick in demand to list their property in order to get a better price and buyers sitting on the sidelines in hopes that prices may come down.Office vacancies and the tax baseAlthough it may not appear that office vacancies have much of an impact on the residential real estate sector, DellaPelle quickly dispelled that myth.“I have a client who recently bought a $32 million assessed office building and paid $8.5 million for it in a very strong suburban market. So, what happens when that kind of deal occurs? Well, obviously the buyer resets the market because they paid a fraction of what it had traded for a few years earlier,” DellaPelle said.As office vacancies increase, the value of commercial office buildings decreases, and if the properties are reassessed for much less than they were worth a few years ago, the town may see a dramatic decrease in property tax revenue. The town may then decide to pass on some of those financial challenges by taxing homeowners at a higher rate or by providing fewer town services, which may lead homeowners to leave the town, selling their properties, which could result in dropping home prices due to a rapid rise in inventory and a drop in demand.Additionally, DellaPelle noted that higher rate of office vacancies also impacts local small businesses such as dry cleaners and sandwich shops, as fewer people visit local businesses to take care of needs created by working in an office.SustainabilityMore so than prior generations, Millennials, many of which are entering their peak homebuying years, are focused on sustainability and whether a property they invest in can withstand the effects of climate change, while also maintaining a smaller carbon footprint. This combined with the increased occurrence of extreme weather events and a changing regulatory environment pushed sustainability to the No. 8 spot on CRE’s list.“Property owners are continuing to feel growing pressure to better understand their carbon footprints, to try to decarbonize their properties. The demand for more sustainable properties will continue,” DellaPelle said. “To make our building more resilient, the real estate industry has to embrace technology.”Artificial intelligenceWhen thinking about how the real estate industry must push into the future and embrace technology, the focus naturally goes to AI. While many in the real estate industry have lauded AI as a useful tool to help industry professionals improve the accuracy and speed at which they complete tasks, DellaPelle and CRE believe there are risks real estate professionals should be aware of when using the technology.Many real estate professionals have begun using AI to help them prepare comparative market analyses on a property. Although this may provide some time savings, DellaPelle noted that agents should always double check the accuracy of the AI-generated reports.“If you are looking at a comp data sheet, don’t trust it,” said DellaPelle. “Call whomever you need to verify the information is accurate, as the AI may not have understood the specific dynamics of the market or something as simple as the location. Does the AI know that the property—which is a multi-family building in an urban core with street level retail—is near mass transit and how that impacts the price?”Housing attainabilityHousing affordability challenges are certainly not new and not surprising, especially in an environment that has seen home values increase rapidly in recent years in tandem with rising mortgage rates.For DellaPelle, a large contributor to this issue is the lack of housing inventory, which he and CRE attribute to the changing nature of the population base.“I’m not going to sell my house as readily as I used to because, if you are my age (62) with no kids left in the house, you either don’t have a mortgage or what is remaining on that mortgage is going to be miniscule. Why would I sell my house and buy a new one, taking on a 7% mortgage to get a smaller house that is going to end up costing me more than my big house?” DellaPelle posited. “Inventory is diminished because there are fewer people selling than there used to be. On top of that, we are also living longer, so we are staying in our homes longer because we are healthier.”Additionally, DellaPelle said the market of buyers has also decreased, as many younger potential buyers are frustrated by the lack of affordable homes, and are instead choosing to rent for longer.In his view, this means that there needs to be more programs and initiatives to help first-time buyers and access the housing market.“We need to look for way in which the attainability of housing can be mitigated by public sector enhancement of private sector opportunities,” DellaPelle said.Insurance costsIn addition to the challenge of housing affordability, many homebuyers are also facing challenges related to rising insurance costs.“It affects the price of your home,” DellaPelle said. “Insurance companies are only in the business if they can make money, and they are only writing policies if they are confident in the level of risk. If you own real estate or help people to own real estate, you need to be very sensitive to this issue because it is going to be hard to predict what it might cost to insure properties going forward.”Geopolitics and regional warsAlthough it may seem far-fetched that a war in a distant corner of the globe may impact your local housing market, DellaPelle said the idea isn’t as strange as you may think.“All those conflicts affect us more today than they used to. The world has clearly become more uncertain and risky because of the geopolitical landscape and the way in which we are all connected with each other,” DellaPelle said. “The world has gotten smaller.”As DellaPelle pointed out, a conflict in a different country could easily impact the supply chain, leading to an increase in the cost of certain goods, which may impact consumers’ level of savings, hindering their ability to purchase real estate. Additionally, historically many foreign investors have chosen to store money in U.S. real estate when conflicts have occurred in their home countries, forcing U.S. homebuyers to compete with investors for properties.Loan maturities and debt repricingAt the end of 2026, an estimated $2.5 trillion in commercial loan debt is expected to come to maturity. For the majority of these loans, this will mark a rapid shift as they were written in a very different commercial real estate market and when interest rates were much lower.  “How does our economy get through that? What happens to real estate knowing that most of those loans are secured to properties that have a different set of value parameters than they did when they were cast?” DellaPelle asked.While this issue will primarily impact the commercial market, if it results in even stricter lending standards across the board, that could make things even more challenging for homebuyers trying to break into the housing market.Cost of financingIn a similar vein, DellaPelle and the CRE are also not expecting interest rates to cool down any time soon. Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75-basis points over the past few months, DellaPelle said the days of what he calls “free money” are over.“Whether the Fed reduces rates four times, or two or three of five, rates are not going down to zero,” DellaPelle said. “I don’t think you’ll see people get mortgages under 3% for a long, long time, unless something weird happens, and I don’t wish that upon us.”Despite this, DellaPelle believes that rate cuts are a good indicator that monetary policy is beginning to normalize.“It is giving us hope that monetary policy is at a turning point, but it might take another couple of years before it irons out,” he said.Global and U.S. electionsPlaying a significant role in shaping future monetary policy is, of course, the results of elections. While many expect the election of Donald Trump as the U.S.’s 47th president to usher in a new era of business-friendly policies, DellaPelle stressed that no one really knows exactly how things will play out.“The policies, not only of our leadership in this country, but in other countries, is likely to evolve, especially with respect to things like monetary policy,” DellaPelle said. “The uncertainty that is attached to the fact that we have a lot of change politically is something you should think about. The decisions that are made by our elected leaders are very important to all of us and they will affect the real estate industry. You need to understand that the elections, not just here, but elsewhere will have impacts that you probably can’t even anticipate right now.”Although these issues may seem intimidating, DellaPelle told attendees the most important thing to consider, and follow are population demographics.“You have to anticipate where they [people] are going. Like Wayne Gretzky used to say you want to go where the puck is going, not where it was,” he said.

New York-based digital mortgage lender Better.com launched a streamline refinance loan product on Monday that aims to help military veterans and service members save money on long-term interest expenses and closing costs.Better is now offering the well-known Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL) through the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The product is available to active-duty service members, veterans and surviving spouses. It includes no appraisal and no income documentation requirements.“The addition of VA IRRRL allows Better to give back to veterans and their families through mortgage offerings that make homeownership simpler and more affordable,” Vishal Garg, CEO of Better.com, said in a statement. “As we look ahead with optimism to a more favorable interest rate environment, we are proud to simplify the refinancing process for veterans, helping those who have served our country save money and secure their financial future.”The IRRRL option allows borrowers to receive funds faster through fewer eligibility requirements and less paperwork. The product has a lower funding fee (0.5% of the loan amount) compared to the VA’s purchase, construction and cash-out refi options. It also includes a fixed rate that may save on expenses for borrowers with an existing adjustable-rate mortgage.To qualify, borrowers must have a current VA loan that is in good standing and must have previously used their VA entitlement. The upfront closing costs can be rolled into monthly payments or waived, if a borrower has a qualifying disability.To further speed up the process, Better is encouraging prospective clients to use its AI loan assistant, Betsy, for 24/7 support on questions. The company introduced Betsy last month following two years of work with data partner Palantir.In September, Better rolled out a streamline refi product through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).Kevin Ryan, Better’s chief financial officer, told HousingWire in September that the company was seeing more web traffic and lead volume immediately after the Federal Reserve’sdecision to cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. The Fed trimmed rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday. And further cuts could spark consumer action on the refi front.“Given our technology and the way people surface financial decisions now, there’s a fair amount of people starting to get out there,” Ryan said.But the forecast for refinance demand is changing as mortgage rates have skyrocketed in the past six weeks. The average rate for a 30-year conforming loan was 6.94% on Friday, according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, up 63 bps since the Fed’s September meeting.Last month, Fannie Mae economists called for refi volumes to finish this year at $368 billion, which would represent a 66% increase from 2023. Looking ahead at 2025, they forecast rates to drop to 5.7%, which would spur a 70% rise in refi originations to $625 billion.

As a panel of real estate leaders gathered to discuss the future of the MLS at the National Association of Realtors‘ NXT conference in Boston, Errol Samuelson, Zillow‘s chief industry development officer, found himself and his company in a bit different standing than usual with the audience of several hundred agents and brokers.“The MLS is so incredibly pro-consumer. It lets buyers see all of their options,“ Samuelson said. “If you think about sellers, it enables them to see what their competition is, and it lets sellers come up with a strategy in terms of how they should work with their agent to sell their home. “The MLS is an unbiased, open marketplace where there is equal access to information. So, it is a fair, level playing field because everybody has the same opportunity to see the same data,” he added to widespread applause among the audience.Zillow has long been disliked, or merely tolerated, by many real estate professionals. But the company’s strong stance on data transparency and in providing equal access to listing information for both agents and consumers appears to have changed that.While the panelists did not explicitly discuss NAR’s increasingly controversial Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), the rule, which requires listing brokers to enter listings into the MLS within 24 hours of marketing the property, was at the center of the panel’s discussion.Where to draw the line?The support shown toward comments made by Samuelson and California Regional MLS (CRMLS) CEO Art Carter during the panel discussion stood in stark contrast to the silence following remarks made by Compass founder and CEO Robert Reffkin.During Compass’ third-quarter 2024 earnings call with investors, Reffkin claimed that agents across the country are “infuriated” with CCP and their inability to give sellers a choice in listing their property on the MLS. But the cool response Reffkin received during the panel would suggest fewer agents than his brokerage believes are actually supportive of changing the policy.As he has previously stated, Reffkin highlighted data such as days on market and price drop history, which is typically displayed alongside all listings in the MLS, as being problematic and harmful to home sellers.“I think when we talk about consumers, we often talk a lot about buyers and not enough about sellers. I think in the future it will be more balanced,” Reffkin said. “I believe days on market is the killer of value. I believe price drop history is the killer of value. No homeowner wants it on their listing, but 40% of homes right now have a price drop history, which makes them look like damaged goods. “I think if buyers deserve to know days on market, then sellers should deserve to know how long a buyer has been looking and how many of their offers have been rejected.”While the other panelists agreed that several price declines or a high number of days on the market is not a flattering look for a property, they are concerned about where the line would be drawn if they began to withhold information about the listing from buyers.“It is hard from an MLS standpoint because days on market is a fact of marketing the property, and if you hide that, then at what level do you hide that information from a buyer? I have difficulty in that concept that because it disadvantages the seller. I don’t think you should hide that piece of information,” Carter said.In a session later in the day about educating sellers, Michael Soon Lee, the president of Seminars Unlimited, stressed to attendees that the more information their sellers are willing to disclose about a property — even if it is something unflattering — the better.“Every single thing that the seller discloses about the property takes the liability off their shoulders and puts it on the shoulders of the buyer,” Lee said. “As an agent, your job is to make sure your seller discloses everything that they need to disclose, which is anything that could be a problem in the future.”This suggests that despite Reffkin’s assertions, many in the industry still believe it is important for buyers to have access to as much information about a listing as possible.Panelist Kymber Lovett-Menkiti, the president of Washington, D.C.-based Keller Williams Capital Properties, acknowledged that while withholding certain listings from MLSs or creating a more fragmented view of the market may fuel competition among brokerages, it may not be the best thing for consumers.“If you are only seeing a partial view of what is available, we as an industry will find a solution for that and be competitive. But ultimately, if it is competitive at the brokerage level but a disservice to the consumer, is that really in our best interest?” Lovett-Menkiti said.When it comes to competition between brokerages and agents, Samuelson believes the competition should focus on individual skills.“I think the best agents win because of their expertise and their experience and their skills, not because of an information asymmetry,” Samuelson said. “I think that the information should be equally available and then the agents should compete on their skills.”Starting from scratch?During the panel, moderator Brian Donnellan, the president and CEO of Bright MLS, asked panelists what they believe would happen if the MLS went away.“We have 100 years of evolution in the MLS, and I think that if the legs were cut out from underneath the MLS and we had to start over, we would end up in a very frustrating environment because it took 100 years to get from the fractured environment we started with to the transparent marketplace we have now,” Carter said.But with offers of buyer broker compensation no longer being allowed on the MLS — and some, like Reffkin, advocating for the removal of the CCP — a world without the MLS may be closer to reality than some in the industry would like to admit. Due to this, many industry professionals believe cooperation among brokerages is even more important.“The MLS is the transparent marketplace. It is the one place I can go to find all of the listing content, all of the available properties in a certain area for my client, and for a lot of people, that is more important than anything else,” Carter said. “If you dig into it a little bit, by having that data in there, agents and consumers can rely on the fact that the property is really for sale and that it really has four bedrooms and three bathrooms.”Lovett-Menkiti also said it is important for consumers to have a platform like the MLS, where the information is presented both accurately and fairly.“They need a platform where they know that I didn’t pay extra to bump one listing to the top over others, but that there is a leveling of information out there for how buyers work and search,” she said.Not only did panelists wish to see their MLSs continue to exist and provide consumers with access to data, they also want to see the platforms improve to better serve brokers and agents.“If you feel like your MLS is not providing you with the services and products you need, you can advocate through your state or local association for that because, in some instances, our consumers have a better product in a listing portal than we do in the MLS,” Lovett-Menkiti said.  Especially in areas with several overlapping MLSs, Samuelson said that if data sharing agreements exist and MLSs can home in on solutions to agent pain points, they will be able to compete for agent business.“If those data shares happen, brokers would have a choice in the MLS they join,” he said. “You wouldn’t be choosing an MLS simply because they have some sort of exclusive access to certain listings. You’d have MLSs competing based on the cost and the services that are provided and the level of customer service.”While the MLS of the future may look a bit different — and may offer brokers and agents more services — it appears that the majority of Realtors present at NAR NXT would like to preserve the core function of the MLS by providing all consumers with equal access to accurate and transparent data.

Zillow is moving full speed ahead with an ambitious expansion of its mortgage business, leveraging its housing tech innovations to potentially reshape how modern homebuyers finance homes. In its third-quarter earnings report, Zillow Home Loans revealed an impressive data point: mortgage revenue increased 63% year over year in the third quarter to $39 million, which is primarily due to an 80% year-over-year increase in purchase loan origination volume to $812 million. That’s an annualized $3.2 billion in purchase mortgage business, not far off a top 50 spot on the mortgage leaderboard. And the company has been hiring loan officers at a good clip over the last year, according to NMLS data.The Zillow funnelEverything starts at the top of the funnel. In the third quarter, Zillow attracted an average of 233 million unique monthly users across its apps and websites, according to its own metrics, while analytics company Comscore reported 116 million average monthly visitors for the same period. No real estate platform in America gets more eyeballs. Not even close. But separating the serious buyers from the hundreds of millions of looky-loos has always been the challenge, particularly when the business focus was on advertising revenue from agents. To that end, Zillow is pushing serious shoppers further down the funnel with its “enhanced markets” initiative. Established in 2022, the program essentially combines a suite of tech tools, such as Flex, ShowingTime, Zillow Home Loans, Follow Up Boss, and Real Time Touring, to drive lead conversions alongside top agents. The Seattle juggernaut has been ramping up Enhanced Markets over the past year. It has now replaced Premier Agent in 43 markets, and according to Modex, much of its mortgage activity is clustered around Dallas, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Raleigh, and Portland, Ore.Through Flex, a successor to the longtime Premier Agent program, qualified agents get leads with higher chances of conversion success from Zillow’s team, all with no upfront cost. But there are some boxes to check and heavy costs to stomach: To remain in the Flex program, agents need to ensure they hit transaction targets, answer client questions, have communication monitored, and see that “60% of opted-in transfers engage with Zillow Home Loans.”If a deal closes, Zillow will collect 40% of the agent’s commission.The lead generation program is designed for top-producing agents and teams who spend thousands a month on Zillow leads. Zillow is hoping agents refer clients to Zillow Home Loans instead of their usual rotation of loan officers from outside mortgage companies. The company said that in “Enhanced Markets” they’ve been in for more than six months, customer adoption rates for Zillow Home Loans “are in the mid-teens, with newer markets trending similarly.”Zillow said they’re also seeing higher transaction conversion rates for agent partners working with customers who choose Zillow Home Loans, “as we help agents and loan officers together better serve customers when they’re ready to transact.”In the company’s earnings call this week, CEO Jeremy Wacksman said the potential in the mortgage space is enormous. “Forty percent of all home buyers start their home shopping journey looking for a mortgage, and more than 80% of those buyers don’t yet have an agent,” he said.

The seasonal housing inventory peaks and bottoms have happened later than usual in the past few years. Last week, we saw a noticeable decline in both active inventory and new listings, which isn’t abnormal, but we might have had an election variable here. In the past two years, starting in mid-November, mortgage rates have fallen, and we have seen positive, forward-looking housing demand data. Will that be the case again?Weekly housing inventory dataIf we have seen the peak for inventory, the best housing story in 2024 is that we have healthy enough inventory growth to handle demand if mortgage rates drop to 6% or below. Also, my model of healthy normal inventory growth — between 11,000 and 17,000 per week — has stayed consistent this year, as we haven’t seen one print over 17,000 in 2024 but a few prints between 11,000 and 17,000, which is something we couldn’t do at all last year. Weekly inventory change (Nov. 1-Nov. 8): Inventory fell from 735,718 to 721,576The same week last year (Nov. 3-Nov 10): Inventory rose from 566,882 to 566,941The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497The inventory peak for 2024 so far is 739,434For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,140,557New listings dataAnother positive story for 2024 has been the growth in new listings data. Yes, we didn’t hit my target level this year — we missed by 5,000 — but growth is growth. Remember all those years of stories by fake housing experts that we would see a flood of new listings due to the Silver Tsunami, Airbnb bust, and stressed-out home sellers? 2024 will be the second-lowest year for new listings ever. And last week, we had the lowest new listings data in history. New listings data can be very volatile week to week, and this last week was a big dive. Maybe some people decided to wait to list their house until after the election. However, it’s almost Thanksgiving and a seasonal decline in inventory at this point is common. Here’s the new listings data for last week over the past several years:   2024: 48,8632023: 55,3272022: 52,643Price-cut percentageIn an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates rise, the price-cut percentage grows. When rates go lower, and demand picks up, this data line can cool down, as it has recently. A few months ago, on the HousingWire Daily podcast, I predicted that price-growth data would cool down in the year’s second half. I have been wrong in this assessment, but our pending new price index finally had a seasonal decline last week.I was 100% surprised that pricing has stayed as firm as it has in our weekly data with our inventory levels. The price-cut percentage declined earlier in 2024 than in the two previous years; lower mortgage rates did their thing. However, as you can see, with more inventory in 2024, it’s a more modest move.Here are the price-cut percentages for last week over the previous few years:2024: 38.8%2023: 39%2022: 43%Purchase application dataHigher mortgage rates always impact the purchase application data, so the fact that the last four weeks have been trending negatively isn’t surprising. Purchase application data takes about 30-90 days to hit the sales data, so it would be around now that we see the hit.When mortgage rates were running higher earlier in the year (between 6.75%-7.50%), this is what the purchase application data looked like:14 negative prints2 flat prints2 positive printsWhen mortgage rates started falling in mid-June, here’s what purchase applications looked like:12 positive prints 5 negative prints1 flat print3 straight positive year-over-year growth printsWith mortgage rates up again, here is where we are:3 negative prints1 positive weekly prints4 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data, but the bar is low for this. Weekly pending salesBelow is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data to show real-time demand. This data line is very seasonal, as we can see in the chart below, and we should remember how high mortgage rates were at this time last year. We are now showing growth versus 2023 and 2022 data in this data line, but context is critical. 2022 sales had the fastest crash in sales ever, and 2023 home sales were at record low levels, so take the growth in context with those two truths. Higher mortgage rates are kicking into the weekly data of the pending contracts. I was surprised by the steady demand last week, but we can see a slowdown here in new listings data. Maybe there was an election delay previous week; if that’s the case we will see a small comeback in inventory next week.This is the weekly pending sales for last week over the previous few years: 2024: 336,6242023: 301,7682022: 314,27110-year yield and mortgage ratesMy 2024 forecast included:A range for mortgage rates between 7.25%-5.75%A range for the 10-year yield between 4.25%-3.21%The main thing about last week is that the 4.40% level held on the 10-year yield. It was a wild, whacky week with the election and the Fed meeting. However, the downtrend from 5% is still intact for now.After the election, things calmed down and even more so after the Fed meeting, to end the week at 4.31% .There has been some talk that President-elect Trump’s economic policies will create 8% plus mortgage rates. I encourage everyone to listen to this HousingWire Daily podcast we recorded after the election to try to bring some reality to the mortgage rate discussion going out for the next four years. Mortgage spreadsThe mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023. We have already seen a big move this year; mortgage rates would be much higher today without the spreads improving. Unfortunately, the spreads have worsened with the recent spike in mortgage rates. Still, if I took the worst spreads from last year, mortgage rates would be 0.65 % higher today. If mortgage spreads were back to normal, you would see mortgage rates lower by 0.78%—0.88%.The week ahead. Inflation week, retail sales and Fed speeches It’s inflation week again! We will also have retail sales and a few Fed presidents will be giving their take on the economy. After all the drama we had last week, I want to see how the bond market reacts to the inflation data and retail sales now, as bond yields are much higher than the day the Fed cut rates in September. Also, we always want to watch Fed president speeches and their terminology for clues on the future. Again, as always, it’s labor over inflation. Keep an eye out for jobless claims data each Thursday; that’s their extensive labor data line and the one the bond market will follow.

The newly-updated Fannie Mae Selling Guide for November has aimed to modernize special property eligibility and underwriting considerations for leasehold estates, and it has revised the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)’s project review requirements for properties secured by manufactured homes.The Selling Guide has also updated requirements “related to the market area analysis of the appraisal report and add[ed] standardized definitions relevant to appraisal market areas to the glossary.” It also clarifies that sellers and servicers are “responsible for preventing, detecting, and reporting mortgage fraud.”Regarding the leasehold provisions, the GSE revised its eligibility requirements “to provide clarifications and update lease requirements, address scenarios related to leasehold estates in projects, and to include co-ops as eligible property types,” according to the update.This has included the addition of a “definitive list of eligible property types, definitions, and exceptions to the leasehold topic,” as well as clarification of leasehold provisions related to first-lien enforceability, appraisal and title insurance.The guide has also clarified that for manufactured homes located within a larger project, the homeowners association “must be the lessee.” And it updates certain lease requirements such as those for default notifications and options for the cure and merger of title. These provisions go into effect in March 2025.The guide has also added a project review for manufactured homes, including those on leasehold estates.“To facilitate lending for manufactured homes in projects, we clarified policy to resolve inconsistencies related to when a manufactured home requires submission to Project Eligibility Review Service (PERS),” the update reads. It emphasized that manufactured homes in co-op projects “remain ineligible project types and cannot be delivered to Fannie Mae.” This policy is effective immediately.There is also a section on appraisals. Fannie Mae is collaborating with fellow GSE Freddie Mac to update requirements related to ”the Market Area analysis of the appraisal report and implementing standardized definitions for the terms ‘Neighborhood’ and ‘Market Area.’” Fannie urges sellers to implement these changes immediately, but they must be in place starting in February 2025.Finally, the update aims to clarify responsibilities when cases of mortgage fraud are detected.“Sellers and servicers are responsible for preventing, detecting, and reporting mortgage fraud,” the update said. “Sellers and servicers are reminded to have policies and procedures in place to ensure the integrity of information and processes at every stage in the life of a mortgage, from application through servicing.”For any sellers or servicers not already complying with this requirement, compliance is encouraged immediately but must be completed by March 2025.