When land strategy meets AI: homebuilders gain a new edge

Strategic paralysis in a buyer-stuck market

If land is the lifeblood of homebuilding, then today’s land strategy is a pressure test of a company’s core strength. But how do you act when the market offers no clear signal?

After a chaotic four-year stretch of feast, famine, and fiscal policy shockwaves, new-home selling has slowed into a holding pattern. Buyers are hesitant, traffic is thin, and the long-awaited lift from lower mortgage rates hasn’t materialized—not yet. With household budgets squeezed from all sides—rate buydowns, rising taxes, climbing home insurance premiums, expiring ACA subsidies—demand for new homes, while structurally supported, is wobbling in the near term.

“In a flat or falling pricing environment, you don’t get many do-overs,” says Carter Malloy, founder and CEO of Acres. “What you pay for land today will define your next 24 to 36 months.”

Simple, stark math—home prices stuck in limbo while carrying costs quietly mount—is driving a new level of scrutiny on every lot under contract. Builders are pulling back, delaying land acquisitions, and second-guessing lot releases. The phrase “let’s wait and see” has replaced “full speed ahead.”

Builders are running specs that don’t pencil. Deals are still getting done—but some are designed to cut losses or move inventory at breakeven.

That’s why Acres.com’s new AI solution isn’t trained to scout for yield alone.

“The goal here is identifying the best deals Malloy says. “And sometimes that means protecting against the downside. Put simply, it’s not just about buying better—it’s also about avoiding the 10% to 20% of land deals that become problems.”

In a jittery market, preventing the unforced error can be as valuable as chasing marginal gains.

This limbo puts intense pressure on land teams. Do they buy now, or hold? Sell off entitled parcels or double down on forward positioning? Is now a moment for defense, or one for a bold land bet that will pay off when demand returns?

And crucially: who has the data, speed, and insight to decide?

Land decisions under pressure: the need for better data

The traditional land acquisition process—fragmented, people-dependent, and spreadsheet-bound—has long struggled to keep up with the velocity of capital and the complexity of today’s risk environment.

When builders miss a land opportunity, they often don’t miss because they lacked capital. They miss because the deal didn’t look like a winner—until it was.

“You can’t afford to chase every piece of land,” one national builder exec told TBD this week. “But the problem is, without the right data, it’s hard to know which deals not to chase.”

The pressure compounds on the disposition side, too. Builders who loaded up on land in 2021–2022 now face questions about what to hold, what to exit, and how to manage portfolio value under a very different demand forecast.

Acres.com bets on AI to close the confidence gap

Enter Acres.com.

The land intelligence platform—launched in 2022 and known for aggregating vast troves of property data—just rolled out a new AI-driven enhancement to its property analysis tools. The goal? Deliver the kind of decision clarity builders and land teams need to act with conviction in a foggy market.

“AI enables teams to synthesize and search massive amounts of internal and external data instantly,” says Acres founder and CEO Carter Malloy in an exclusive TBD interview. “That capability is key to making better decisions faster.”

Malloy, a former investment analyst whose previous business was responsible for hundreds of millions in successful land transactions, sees the platform’s mission in simple terms: remove guesswork, reduce friction, and replace time-consuming manual research with an always-on, AI-enhanced assistant.

The new feature integrates AI into Acres’ existing property analytics dashboard. Users can instantly answer questions about a site or portfolio—“What are my top five comps nearby?”, “What zoning changes are likely?”—and receive synthesized, data-driven responses instantly.

It’s the kind of capability land teams have long imagined but rarely had at their fingertips.

A new toolkit for builders: what the AI model sees

What makes Acres’ new AI integration distinctive is how it brings together the raw data and the reasoning layer. Acres has already compiled parcel-level insights on over 150 million U.S. properties. That data includes zoning, ownership, transaction history, flood risk, topography, and more—merged from thousands of sources.

The AI layer adds intelligence to that depth.

For example, users can:

• Compare nearby sites for relative risk or return potential
• Analyze sales history trends in a micro-market
• Surface seller motivation signals or hold durations

And crucially, they can ask for those insights like they’d ask a seasoned land analyst: in plain English.

“This isn’t just about maps and spreadsheets anymore,” Malloy says. “It’s about actionable guidance.”

For time-strapped land teams navigating a sea of uncertainty, that shift—from information to insight—could be game-changing.

Smarter risk management in a trading-heavy market

The platform launch comes as more builders behave like traders, not just operators.

Land portfolios, once slow-moving and held for years, are now managed with a sharper eye toward optionality, liquidity, and capital efficiency. Some builders are even cycling land in and out like REITs or private equity managers—especially in higher-cost or high-barrier markets.

“Builders are increasingly sellers of land, not just buyers,” Malloy notes. “That’s a huge behavioral shift, and it requires a different kind of intelligence.”

Whether the objective is to identify land arbitrage, improve deal underwriting, or optimize timing for sales and purchases, AI becomes a powerful ally. Especially when other players are stuck.

“There’s alpha in acting while others wait,” Malloy says. “But only if you’ve got an edge.”

The edge: Acting with conviction when others pause

In a market clouded by ambiguity, conviction is a rare and valuable commodity. Builders who find ways to act decisively—grounded in data, accelerated by technology, and informed by risk-adjusted thinking—will outperform those who wait for perfect conditions.

Acres.com tracks those signals in its land sale and permit data—surface-level indicators of activity—but the AI platform’s real power is in pattern recognition across entire portfolios.

“If you see a public builder pull back in a market where you’re doubling down, that’s a signal,” Malloy says. “If three builders bought in the last 90 days but one is dumping lots now, that’s a signal. AI helps surface those.”

These aren’t just alerts—they’re boardroom-level inputs that sharpen instinct with evidence. Acres’ bet is that artificial intelligence can provide that conviction boost. Not by replacing judgment, but by sharpening it.

In our conversation, Malloy framed it this way:

“The best land decisions come from local relationships, great instincts, and a clear picture of the market. AI won’t replace that—it’ll amplify it. It’s like having a great junior analyst who never sleeps and reads everything.”

As builders and developers gear up for 2026, with a market still in flux and capital growing cautious, tools like this may prove essential—not just nice to have. The challenge isn’t whether to build. It’s where, when, and how much risk to take.

And those who can answer those questions first—with more clarity than their competitors—may be the ones holding the strongest hands when demand returns.